Updates

4 September

Change underreporting rate to 12.5% based on best guess from David Hood

3 September

Change case halving time time to 45 weeks per David Hood

Change undereporting rate to 31%

Finally remove Christmas/New Year's 30% multiplier

Assume people now only isolate for 5 days, which means 2/3 are still infectious after leaving isolation

4 March

Change case doubling time time to 22 days per David Hood

24 February

Change case doubling time time to 46 days per David Hood

17 February

Change case halving time time to 652 days per David Hood

7 February

Change case halving time time to 28 days per David Hood

20 January

Change case halving time time to 18 days per David Hood

14 January

Change case doubling time to 290 days per David Hood

10 January

Change case doubling time to 102 days per David Hood

6 January

Change case halving time to 37 days per David Hood

4 January

Change case halving time to 21 days per David Hood

2022

28 December

Corrected a typo spotted by a real data specialist Grant Paton-Simpson. Check out his fabulous statistics, analysis, and reporting package for PC, Mac and Linux

Corrections to distinguish about covid case doubling time (case numbers going up) and havlving time (how long for case numbers to drop to half of their current level)

Added a 1.3 multiple to case prevalence to correct for an estimate Christmas/New Year underreporting

27 December

Change case halving time to 16 days per David Hood

23 December

Change case ascertainement correction for underreporting to 2.2 based on MoH which uses wastewater data. There is a high error range of 0.36 to 0.53 for 90% confidence. And the wasterwater estimate is not adjusted for seasonal or rainfall dilution effects.

Change case halving time to 36 days per David Hood

Change Tip text on graph to show percentage to 4 significant figures.

20 December

Change case doubling time to 2,610 days per David Hood

Added a link to David Hood's Infective Prevalence by age

18 December

Amended Privacy Statement to note that I store how many days ahead your event is (but not linked to you

Store number of days in the future the event is so I can focus efforts on improving estimates of case numbers for future dated forecasts

Added list of updates

Added bus ride as a type of event

17 December

Change case doubling date to 33 days for future events

Added Disengage Safety Protocols to allow reported case rates over hisotoric maximum of 2.15% for people who want to experiment

Removed "1 person attending" from graph

Clarifed explanatory wording

9 December

Added plane flight as type of event and made it the default for suggested text

8 December

Changed colour coding so that 10% wasn't coloured green - that' still a very high risk

Added caveat that risk also depends on the risk profile of people attending the event

Added expected number of positive cases to suggested text

Added 35,000 attending to graph range to match Billy Joel concert

8 December

Initial release